FC138: A New Balance of Power and Cold War (1945-1948)

FC138
The Soviet Union never deserts its friends. Soviet ambassador, threatening intervention in Hungary

The aftermath of World War II

The human capacity for self-destruction had reached new heights in World War II. An estimated 55,000,000 people had died, 27,000,000 in the Soviet Union alone. Most of the dead were civilians who just happened to be caught in the path of a new and ever more destructive warfare. In addition to the dead were another 50,000,000 refugees. There were people displaced by the war trying to find their ways home, Jews still being persecuted even in the aftermath of the war, Germans driven from their homes as Stalin cut back Germany's borders to make room for his own expansion, and Soviets released from German prison camps only to be forced to return home as "traitors" to face Stalin's labor camps. Refugees flocked to the cities desperately seeking jobs, food, and shelter, only to find mountains of rubble. Hardly a city in Europe had escaped the roar of the bombs, with some cities, such as Stalingrad and Berlin, being 95% destroyed. No wonder that one post-war observer referred to Europe as "half graveyard and half junkyard."

A new balance of power emerges (1945-48)

When the allied armies met in triumph at the Elbe River in May 1945, all seemed to be smiles and comradeship. But with the common Nazi enemy gone, old animosities quickly resurfaced, causing the Western allies and Soviet Union to establish spheres of influence from which they would eye each other suspiciously during the next half-century. For the first years after World War II, there were three main issues: Soviet intervention in Eastern Europe, the political struggle for Western Europe, and the role the United States would play in the world.

Even by 1947, two years after the war, Western Europe had seen little apparent progress in recovering from the war. Roads and bridges were still in disrepair; cities were still largely piles of rubble, and consumer production was only half of what it had been in 1939. Britain and France, the two main European powers who in the past might have led the way in reconstruction, were themselves severely weakened by the war's staggering cost and growing unrest in their colonies. All this produced a good deal of dissatisfaction with the conservative governments that had failed to avert the Depression and World War II and seemed to be doing little to restore things to normal. Benefiting from these problems were the Communists, who had led much of the partisan resistance to the Nazis and now were gaining popularity and votes.

Although Russia was severely damaged by the war, it also had the world's biggest army, and Stalin was determined to use it to guard his country against a repeat of the last four years. In the post-war years, Stalin rebuilt much of Soviet industry while ignoring the needs of his people. For example, by 1948, Stalingrad, which had lost 95% of its industries and population, had restored 60% of its population and 70% of its factories, but had rebuilt only 20% of its housing. Stalin's domestic policy was driven by his intense suspicions of the West. There were several reasons for this: the long time it took for the Allies to open the second front in Normandy, American possession and use of the atomic bomb at the end of the war, and the deep ideological differences between communism and capitalism. For these reasons, he decided to establish a buffer zone in Eastern Europe to forestall any future aggression.

Stalin's domination of Eastern Europe generally followed a fairly insidious but effective pattern. First the Red Army would liberate the country from the Germans. Then the Communists would form a coalition government with other parties while holding key government posts, in particular the ministry of the interior that controlled the police. Using propaganda, gangs of thugs much like the Fascists had used, and the threat of military force from the police and (if necessary) the Red Army, the Communists would gradually force their opponents from the government until only they remained.

As a result, Poland, Czechoslovakia, Hungary, Bulgaria, and Romania, fell under Soviet domination with Soviet troops occupying their territories. Only Yugoslavia, by quickly going Communist and making an outward show of obedience to Stalin, escaped Soviet occupation and kept some measure of independence. For the rest of Eastern Europe, in Churchill's words, an "iron curtain" had descended to keep it firmly under Stalin's heel.

In sharp contrast to this was the United States, whose territory had been virtually untouched by the war. Partly by default due to the war's damage elsewhere and partly by right of its vast resources and industrial strength, the United States in 1945 was by far the number one economic power in the world, controlling an estimated 60% of the world's industrial production.

While the United States was the only nation capable of stopping the Communists, the protection of two oceans made America isolationist at heart. However, having been dragged into two world wars in quick succession, many Americans reluctantly recognized that they were an integral part of a larger world. The fact that a new, hopefully more effective international body, the United Nations, was headquartered in the United States symbolized America's new role in world affairs. Americans also felt increasingly betrayed by the actions of their former ally, Stalin: his stall tactics at the Potsdam Peace Conference (July, 1945), his support of Chinese Communists in their civil war, and his takeover of Eastern Europe. Thus a growing sense of global responsibility and fear of the spread of Communism led the United States to get actively involved in Western Europe.

All these factors, the Soviet occupation of Eastern Europe, the situation in Western Europe, and the United States' gradual acceptance of its role in the world at large, combined to create a two pronged policy. Militarily, President Truman committed the United States to stop Communist aggression in Greece and Turkey in what was known as the Truman Doctrine. In the 1950's, the Eisenhower Doctrine issued by President Eisenhower would expand this policy, known as containment, to stop Communist aggression wherever it occurred. At this point, however, the main focus of the Truman Doctrine was Greece. A bitter civil war between Communist guerrillas operating from mountain bases and government forces in the valleys had been raging since the end of World War II. American military aid and advisors managed to help the government forces stop the Communists and drive them out of Greece by 1949. However, Greece had suffered horribly in this civil war following right on the heels of World War II.

America's economic response was known as the Marshall Plan (1948). Its basic premise was that Communism thrived in economically backward or disrupted areas. Therefore, large amounts of foreign aid to revive Europe's economies would deprive the Communists of the conditions on which they thrived, save Western Europe from Communism, and provide the United States with stable trade partners and markets. Marshall Plan aid was offered to any country desiring it, including the Soviet Union. Stalin, not wanting to be dependant on the West, refused the aid, as did his satellites in Eastern Europe.

However, Marshall Plan aid made a huge difference in Western Europe, especially France and Italy which were in danger of Communist takeover. When American aid was announced, French and Italian Communists made a final bid for power by disrupting their nations through strikes, riots, and even sabotage of public works such as railroads. In each case, the Communists largely discredited themselves, while the more moderate democrats had the Marshall Plan aid to back them up and win over voters. As a result, Western Europe experienced a remarkable economic recovery after this.

The Cold War begins (1948-55)

By 1948, the United States and Soviet Union had established their spheres of influence in Western and Eastern Europe respectively. Unlike World War I when a definitive treaty emerged to determine a new balance of power, no such treaty emerged after World War II. This was because there was such a quick falling out between Stalin and the Western allies after the war. The fates of Western Europe and Eastern Europe had been determined without direct confrontation between the two superpowers. But, by 1948, when the two superpowers had established their spheres of influence, they started confronting each other in what is known as the Cold War.

The Cold War was a period of hostility and competition between the United States and the Soviet Union that always stopped short of direct war between them. It never erupted into open warfare, mainly because their growing arsenals of nuclear weapons made such a war seem suicidal to both sides. Therefore, the Cold War assumed the form of a series of crises that were resolved along two lines of development: either by non military means or by fighting by proxy (substitute) where one or both powers fought each other by supporting smaller allied states in regional wars. The Korean (1950-53), Vietnam (1954-75), Arab-Israeli (1948, 1956, 1967, 1973, and 1982), and Afghan (1979-89) wars were all examples of the superpowers exploiting regional conflicts to promote their own ends.

Crises resolved through non-military means actually ran a higher risk of erupting into all out war, since the Americans and Soviets were directly opposed to one another. In these cases, each side would play a dangerous game of brinkmanship where it would try to push the other side into a position that would make any further escalation of the crisis run the risk of full-scale war. The initial stages of the Cold War were played out in two widely separated theaters corresponding to the two main theaters of World War II: Europe and Asia.